The Biggest Bubble of All-Time
GDP isn't good, the central banks are constantly buying government securities to artificially keep rates low, NK wants to nuke us, another potential war is breaking out in the East, foreign markets are selling off, the Fed just announced 4 rate-hikes, retailers are starting to flood the market, the yield curve is flattening, hasn't been a correction in months....so I must ask...why does the market keep going higher ever day? I think this is one of the biggest bubbles of all time. 20 years from now we will ask why we didn't question the QE practices going on right now which is the major cause of this.
Oh yeah by the way Bitcoin is not safe in case you were wondering.
EDIT: Just remembered, Republitards are implementing the FIFO tax which will trigger major sell offs before the bill is implemented
And I may add, once the Republicans do savage cuts to medicare and Social security, say good bye to your "3-4%" economic growth as lower-to-middle class people (who are the drivers of the American economic engine) will have to use their disposable income just to pay for insanely high-priced health insurance
I don't know why no one talks about this
I just remembered, the FIFO tax. Republitards want to hurt retail investors, once again, by adding a tax on top of capital gains. There will be major sell-offs before the Bill is officially implemented.
I believe the FIFO tax is out, no? Larry Kudlow had that scoop on the 13th and it has been confirmed.
Why did you put 3-4% in quotes like that? Like it doesn't exist or something?
I put 3-4% in quotes because that's what Trump and his republican friends think they can achieve under their tax bill. However, no one takes into account that the next thing they're going to go after is Social Security and Medicare, and savage cuts into those will bring hell for the lower-to-middle class, That's going to greatly hurt economic growth because people won't be spending their extra $100 of disposable income at Wal-mart when they need to fucking SURVIVE because they don't have a social safey net anymore
Because it's stupid and wrong. Medicare and especially SS don't drive economic growth. They drive debt. And "lower-to-middle class people," whatever the fuck that means, don't drive the "American economic engine," as you put it.
The economy is growing because of deregulation, consumer/producer optimism and because the market has deemed the Trump tax cuts to be stimulative. Trump's pro-growth policies, though restrained by political impediments, have led to positive economic returns, even with rising interest rates. He's done what Obama couldn't do with 0% interest rates, favorable media coverage and a 10+ trillion expansion in debt.
There you go. Now you can stop wondering.
I'd rather have my money go to sick, and the poor rather to the loser corporations that you deal with on a daily basis. Why does my money subsidize these fucking losers? We should've let the big banks, and big 3 fail. You and Republitards bailed them out so I guess it doesn't apply am I right?
Oh by the way, seeing as you work in corporate devetell Microsoft and Apple to stop selling their products here if they are going to stuff their money off shore. Fucking pigs.
EDIT: Oh, GE is the largest tax dodger. I really hope they get shorted to a penny stock, get delisted, management goes broke, and don't get any assistance from me or my fellow American's money.
Ya, I'm sure the extra cash that corporations will now have due to the lower tax rate will cause these companies to hire more people and increase their SG&A spend thus driving productivity and GDP /s
The only people that benefit are shareholders and management teams (via increased share buybacks and dividends), and this will only increase the insanely great wealth inequality gap that's present in the US because, guess what, 50%+ of Americans are not invested in the stock market.
Retard
.
No, the economy is growing b/c the slow GLOBAL recovery in demand since the GFC has finally picked up steam. It would have picked up steam earlier if idiot Republicans hadn't resisted attempts at stimulus (OMG Debt), only so that a few years later they could launch a completely unnecessary and likely ineffectual tax cut that will mostly benefit corporations that don't need help (b/c corporate profits are already largest share of GDP ever).
Trump hasn't done s*** for the economy so far, except draft off the continued impact of Obama's actions. Jobs actually grew faster during 5 years of Obama's term than they have so far for Trump. Likewise, Trump's GDP growth numbers are also likely coming in below Obama's (omg he hit 3% last quarter, Obama had a 5% quarter stop obsessing over near term data points).
The stock market? It's done well under Trump due to the above mentioned demand uplift and the expectation of tax cuts. Quite frankly, this is meaningless - anyone can juice the market by agreeing to a tax giveaway for corporations. Stock market returns are not the way to measure a presidency. If you want to play that game though, the S&P returned 3x during Obama's term. It was up 25% in his first year?
You can argue that Trump has a higher starting base working against him, but then you have to give Obama his due for getting us to that base from what he inherited from Bush (complete crap).
Feel free to STFU and wait till your idiot cheetoh boy does something real before claiming he's improved the economy.
And bring some damn numbers next time.
God man your threads are worse than mine, so far you and Eddie Braverman are the only two posters worse than me on this website and I intentionally try to be this bad
Sad!
I don't know who that Eddie guy is, but looking at his tag tells me he is an institutional trader, and I hate those people
This made me laugh. I'm about as far from an institutional trader as a person can be. Started out as a retail stockbroker cold calling the phone book in a boiler room.
This reads like a yahoo comment.
That was an amazing counter point, +1
Those are some bold claims, what do you have to back up your assertions? You're making ambiguous blanket statements that are easily refuted.
GDP for Q3 2017came in at 3%, the second consecutive quarter.
NK has always and will always want to nuke us, it's a rhetorical rallying device. If you wish to debate whether or not they're a rational actor, the idea of MAAD still leaves them at a massive disadvantage based on their current offensive and defensive capabilities.
Foreign markets selling off? Dude are you serious? This statement alone ruined your credibility and displayed your ignorance. The DAX is up YTD, The Nikkei is up YTD, the Shanghai comp is up YTD-- in fact many of the biggest markets are absolutely up YTD. Here's a link you can bookmark, I suggest you do: http://www.indexq.org/
The Fed announcing rate hikes is a sign of a healthy economy that's beginning to heat up too fast-- the Fed raises rates to taper inflation and keep credit in check. Low unemployement in the US right now only serves to increase their confidence. See Ray Dalio's http://www.economicprinciples.org/ if you need to revisit basic economic principles.
No idea what you mean by this. Flood with products? With actual liquids? C'mon man.
Yield curve is debatable and your one semi-decent point. That said, different dynamics shape the curve and aren't necessarily bearish. Once again, that's whole different topic, but do some research and you'll see why the curve is flattening and why that's not necessarily always a recessionary indicator.
"There hasn't been a correction in months." Well Christ hasn't returned in over 2000 years, cars still aren't flying, and the Illuminati still haven't taken over the world so naturally all those must occur very soon--sound asinine? So is your logic here, I believe the philosophical term for this is gambler's fallacy.
I gather you likely have less than 5 years following markets and have yet to see a true bear market. Here's a valuable tip: Market timing is a foolish strategy. While I agree we may be in the last stages of this bull market, your commentary is entirely off-base.
Yes I agree, we are in the final stages of the bull market. So why not give it a year or so, let the market crash, and buy into the fear? Best way to make money.
Edit: oh yea, market timing is foolish, that's why technical analysis doesn't work!
Perhaps we are. I said may be, not surely.
With increased globalization, lower trading fees, easier access to markets for all societal classes, the astronomical rise of the ETF and passive investing, the 401(k) replacing the pension, the rise of the quants and AI... the 21st century markets are different from what we saw even as recently as the 90's.
People have been and always will be calling for correction and will always be waiting to buy into that perfect dip. It's simply too hard to time.
let me see your short positions and estimate of your net wealth. you are so sure of all these things, yet here you are talking on an anonymous forum...so either you are a) a broke ass full of shit spouting nonsense because no one will listen to you in real life, or b) the most philanthropic billionaire spreading the wealth solely via WSO.
Basic economic principles don't involve infinite debt creation and currency printing outside the control of the congress (the Federal Reserve is not "Federal") which blocks Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" from creating natural market cycles that sustain an economy.
Pertinent reading/viewing below. You should rethink your Keynesian wet dream...
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/alchemy-derivatives-market-could-trigger-next-…
https://www.icmagroup.org/Regulatory-Policy-and-Market-Practice/repo-an…
Why are markets at all time high? Well what’s traded in the market? Corporate profits. Corporate profit expectations are at all time highs. Until something happens to derail corporate profits consistently, the crash isn’t coming. A lot of noise being discussed here.
The biggest bubble of all time - Tulip Mania. even the Bitcoin bubble does not coe near it err.... Oh you are talking about something else....
Are you referring to the Semper Augustus?
marc faber/short sellers/people holding lots of cash: "it's a bubble, a correction is imminent, get out now!"
jeremy siegel, passive indexers, 100% longs: "it's a new economy, we can expand for another 5y at least, everything looks great! valuation is not good for timing!"
back to my dartboard
Are you implying a monkey can pick stocks?
No he's referring to the fact that a monkey throwing darts at a WSJ stock table can do better than a lot of people (mainly you)
He is making fun of Jeremy Siegel for being wrong about buying stocks long on leverage and holding them forever
Also Marc Faber is just generally insane, but in a very entertaining way!
Good Lord, there are some posters on a finance forum that have a fundamental lack of economic and finance knowledge.
We must teach them the ways of the world.
GDP is a pretty awful metric. Consider the fact that the government can issue limitless debt, buy limitless things with debt proceeds, and this causes GDP to rise. Pretty flawed method for measuring a society. If you want to look at a single figure, take a look at median household wealth.
not to mention the complete lack of correlation between GDP and subsequent market returns. it's an ok metric for economists, but it's useless to money managers in my opinion
They cannot let the EZ money asset bubble pop because the entire system system is a massive inverted pyramid based on unsound principles. Have you ever played Jenga?
What is ‘rehypothecation’ of collateral?
"Rehypothecation is the practice of using the assets held as collateral for one client in transactions for another. This allows the prime broker to re-lend client securities held as collateral."
http://www.batr.org/negotium/100913.html
Who is John Exter?
John Exter (September 17, 1910 – February 28, 2006) was an American economist, member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System, and founder of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. He is also known for creating Exter's Pyramid.
Exter’s Inverted Pyramid
"His pyramid stands upon its apex of gold, which has no counterparty risk nor credit risk and is very liquid. As you work higher into the pyramid, the assets get progressively less creditworthy and less liquid. For instance, paper money here means cash, which is recognized everywhere but is ultimately dependent upon the creditworthiness of the U.S. government. Farther up the pyramid, we find longer-dated U.S. government debt, which like cash is dependent upon the full faith and credit of the U.S. government – but on a longer time horizon. The next level is debt of municipals and corporations, whose value is more safely assured than that of more junior claims, such as investments in stocks, the junior tranche of a corporation’s capital structure. A rough estimate of the global liquid financial markets would place their value close to $100 trillion. This number grows further still as less liquid assets are added, such as private businesses, real estate and ultimately bank derivatives, the largest and murkiest of all assets."
http://www.capitalwealthadvisors.com/2017/05/credit-watching/
Stocks are on the cheap side for the interest rate environment and global growth is picking up
Day to day I'm looking into opportunities where I'm starting to feel like we are getting late into the cycle. Put together the omnipresent overvaluation of equities, cov light trends and depressed credit yields, players crowding in to sector X and Y just because it looks better on a relative basis.. This is not normal, what goes up must eventually come down. Brace yourself, there will be plenty of opportunities to shop once we get to a proper correction... Especially because of things like the tax bill, we could have 2 more years until folks come to their senses.
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