The Greatest Trade I Ever Made
The greatest trade I ever made...
They could be the opening words of a best seller authored by a slew of hedge fund managers, options geeks or old-time pit traders. In my case, it's a story about growing up, coming to grips and knowing when to pull-back versus when to go all-in with your chips.
Back in 2003, my life was different. It might be hard to imagine that a young man so obsessed with money could have known so little about finance and markets.
Yet, there I was. So paid I sneezed chipped platinum and crapped gold bars. Getting set to engage in what I fondly thought of as "the world's biggest casino".
The Stock Market.
I was flush with cash and had a gambler's mentality. It was a great time to be a shopper. Everything was on sale. Armed with nothing but the brash confidence of a fool, I dove in head first. I reasoned that spreading money around (something I would later hear called, diversification) was pointless. I was certain of the stupidity of buying anything that cost more than $5 per share. After all, if I buy something for $0.02 it's a lot more likely to double fast than something costing $8.34, right?
Snicker. Take a moment. Enjoy.
Being that I spent a lot of time on the road, I thought Sirius was the greatest thing going. I had grown up on Howard Stern and the rumors of him signing a contract with SIRI was more motivation than I needed. I bought heavy at $0.75 and kept on buying. I swore it was me that pushed the price up more than two-fold from March to June. A year and a half later the price would peak at $7.62. I sold off just over $7.
I'm telling this story because I was the living definition of "it's better to be lucky than good". Sometimes you have to respect the parameters of a given game, more than the actual way someone plays it. In times of bulls even an ant can rule the jungle.
This story goes to show that markets, much like life do a lot of our determining for us. When it's good anyone can eat and when it's tough even the best can starve.
You cannot always control your fate. Sometimes it is good enough to recognize that you sailed your ship as best you could. If things are not as you wished they would be at this moment, take solace. A captain's greatness is not in his directions or skill, it is in how he reacts to having his ship crushed by the waves and washing up on foreign shores.
Remember these words the next time that you are absolutely, positively, without a shadow of a doubt convinced that you are the smartest guy in the room.
A great point about luck. If you bet the house, roll the dice and win big you are a genius. You miss and you're an idiot. Or are you an idiot just for playing?
I'm a proponent of taking the risk early on. If you hit it than count your blessings and enjoy it. Don't keep playing or you will get burned.
No, you're John Paulson.
See...I don't think that a winning trade can truly be your 'greatest trade.' What do you learn from swinging blind-folded at a Nolan Ryan fastball? If you happen to connect, you don't learn anything. If you fall on your ass, you learn to take off your blinders when playing in the big leagues.
Sirius is a strong buy at any price if Artie comes back.
My greatest buy was Ford at $1.51 and pitching at 14.50 (wish it hit 15 though). Being from metro-Detroit helps. Ford sold their soul (they don't even own their logo) and it came down to them either selling off brands or closing, but no way were they goign to get bailed out.
no man that is bullshit you should have waited till 2008 end of year like i did to buy shit on clearance the nyou could have shorted bp and reversed positions
My greatest trades:
Buying a penny stock, $1000.00 worth of shares and selling them 3 days later for $14,000.00 and I bought just because their marketing was strong and I knew it would go somewhere in the near future with that kind of publicity.
Coming out of a club in atlantic city shit faced and putting $100.00 on 0 and walking away with $3,500.00
Gut feeling beats "being good" 9 out of 10 times.
great post!
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