End of the low-rate era: Cash?

Inspired by the latest Marks memo: Sea change. We know that the Fed is determined to stamp out inflation and regain its credibility. Will probably hike rates for another 50 bps in 2023, then hold it out at the neutral rate of interest. That puts rates just south of the 5% ballpark.

Anyone see a solid thesis for just holding deposits? Why would you bother doing anything if you have a solid strong ~ 5% return.

Was listening to the JPM Centre for Investment Excellence podcast where they outlined their possible strategy of shifting into active management for equities since it will be a rocky year for equity ETFs next year with high rates. They're JPM so naturally it's a good strategy for them - I wonder if people agree if next year would be a good time for just holding deposits for retail investors

 

Because if inflation is 7-10% (or higher) then your 5% doesn't look so great...Great on a nominal basis, meh on a real basis.  Just look back at the last 10 years where inflation was less than 2%.  You earned 0% on your bank accounts.  Spread still exists today just the nominal returns are better.  The second the Fed cuts rates the 5% will be gonzo.

  8.3.4
 

Illo modi autem voluptate rerum officia nobis provident. Sit excepturi veniam autem suscipit ipsum. Quis porro dolorum molestiae nobis ea nulla dignissimos. Et amet et cumque alias sint in.

Career Advancement Opportunities

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Perella Weinberg Partners New 98.9%
  • Lazard Freres 01 98.3%
  • Harris Williams & Co. 24 97.7%
  • Goldman Sachs 16 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.9%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 05 97.7%
  • Perella Weinberg Partners New 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.9%
  • Perella Weinberg Partners 18 98.3%
  • Goldman Sachs 16 97.7%
  • Moelis & Company 06 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (21) $373
  • Associates (91) $259
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (68) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (205) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (148) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
6
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
7
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
8
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
9
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
10
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”