Investment implications of US intervention in Syria

It is looking more and more likely that the US is going to be intervening in Syria, according to a recent report. This would include a couple of specific actions, including but presumably not limited to:


According to the official, the intervention scenario calls for the establishment of a buffer zone on the Turkish border, in order to receive Syrian refugees. The Red Cross would then provide the civilians humanitarian aid, before NATO crews would arrive from Turkey and join the efforts.

The measure would pave the way for the US to declare an aerial blockade on Syria.

The intercession is to be modeled after NATO's efforts in Kosovo, which brought an end to the Serbian control of the region. NATO's plan of action included prolonged aerial shelling.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4194506…

What does this implicate as good investment opportunities in the region, in the wider area that may be affected by the war, the area that may be affected by the outcome of the war and in the wider war as it adjusts to a downfall of the syrian regime or a further repression of the people there? What scenarios are you foreseeing?

Clearly earnings growth is key to equity market performance, so I am seeing this as being a play that will further isolate Iran and cut it off from the mediteranean sea. They recently sent 15,000 troops to Syria, and have been funding their operations and using them as a means for funneling money around the world for a number of years. ( http://www.infowars.com/latest-iran-deploys-15000… ), so I see this as implicating a short position on whatever assets the Iranians had been funneling their surplus oil profits in to. You could probably also go long whatever suppliers there are of missiles to the Air force, though that probably wouldn't be a major spike.

I'd love to look over the newly formed regimes in the other arab countries and see what they are doing now, and what has benefited from their rise. I'd also be curious of how much this isolates Iran, though it may be less substantial given that they have already cut off supplies to Europe and given that they can no longer get payment in USD.

Thoughts?

 

Porro sapiente ut autem molestiae at id laborum. Error esse consequatur quod assumenda consequuntur vero repellat. Optio mollitia non quasi aut aperiam cupiditate aliquid.

Consectetur nihil atque quo quasi accusamus eos. Aut nisi eos ullam vero pariatur. Ut recusandae assumenda aut expedita sint.

Career Advancement Opportunities

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Perella Weinberg Partners New 98.9%
  • Lazard Freres 01 98.3%
  • Harris Williams & Co. 24 97.7%
  • Goldman Sachs 16 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.9%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 05 97.7%
  • Moelis & Company 01 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.9%
  • Perella Weinberg Partners 18 98.3%
  • Goldman Sachs 16 97.7%
  • Moelis & Company 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (21) $373
  • Associates (92) $259
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (68) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (206) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (148) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
3
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
4
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
5
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
6
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
7
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
8
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
9
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
10
numi's picture
numi
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”