Republicans' stance on abortion and Roe v Wade will bite them in the back. I don't think Trump is guaranteed a victory just because of that decision. I'm a conservative (not full on MAGA) but voted for Trump twice and November will be the third time.

Agree on the economy not doing great. Recruiting currently and getting more interviews / phone screens vs a few months ago. But the CPI news this morning is a bummer that might slow down my progress. Let's go Brandon!

 

Being anti killing babies won’t hurt them. Pretty 50/50 across the country. Roe v wade being overturned was great

 

A lot of voters in the middle may put that against them. I'm conservative and think that decision was retarded. I vote though solely on which candidate will improve the economy. Fisically, I'm conservative. Social views, I lean moderate liberal. Some vote on social issues.

 

Being anti killing babies won’t hurt them. Pretty 50/50 across the country. Roe v wade being overturned was great

The Dems' strategy right now is to get abortion rights bills on the ballot in swing states. Banning abortion outright is so unpopular that in the state of Kanas voters enshrined the right to an abortion in the constitution in 2022. Abortion is clearly wicked, but as a matter of political reality, anti-abortion positions are a potential disaster for Republicans. 

 

Being anti killing babies won’t hurt them. Pretty 50/50 across the country. Roe v wade being overturned was great

Kind of echoing what the previous comment said, being anti-abortion will hurt the Republican Party. Nearly all states, no matter how Republican they are are voting to protect abortion rights in the constitution. It's a clear deciding factor for many voters, especially in the swing states. There's no other way around it.

 

Trumps official stance is that it should be up to the states. It's a smart move as it will energize the left lowering turnout in the election helping him. He will most likely back track latter however he is playing smart.

 

I hope he sticks to the state level. For some reason, I feel the leftist media will overlook that closer to November.

 

Will be voting for Trump for the first time this election. Curious to see who he chooses as VP since I like Vivek much more than Trump. Should be someone complementary to lock in moderate republicans. I was a hardcore ancap / hoppean back in 2020 and voted libertarian even though I didn’t love Jorgensen. My politics have evolved a bit since actually getting a job.


I don’t think Biden will win but it’s definitely going to be just as close if not closer than last election. It’s clear only a minority of voters genuinely want either party’s candidate. Really unfortunate lack of effort from either party to develop and elevate the next generation of politicians.


Similar to the Bush Family, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Trump candidate in the next 2-3 Republican primaries if not another Trump family president. And it looks like the Democrats are just now teeing up younger people like Newsom and AOC. Fully expecting Trump Jr vs. Newsom in 2028.

 

Doubt he will tap Vivek - as you said, he needs someone to tap into the non-MAGA Republicans. Tim Scott and Kristi Noem (governor of South Dakota) are being floated in some government circles but it's really impossible to tell what Trump thinks, he's so erratic these days. I've heard Vivek might have a position cabinet-adjacent (chief of staff maybe?) but unsure if he'd take that. 

 

Politics aside, the economy is strong right now, so that favors Biden. Also, democrats are far superior at running campaigns than the republicans. They will outraise and outspend the republicans by a multiple.

Politics don’t really matter when one side is just so much better at winning elections than the other side.

 

Sure by these data reports, it is "strong" but if you talk to everyday normal people where you live - it doesn't feel like it. Prices are increasing at a staggering rate for day-to-day stuff (groceries are insanely pricey nowadays). Every coffee chat I've been having now, the economy comes up and not in a good tone. I know plenty of white collar people who took a lot longer to land a job after recent layoffs than I've seen probably since 2008-2010 (6-12 months).

 
AGNRX1188

Politics aside, the economy is strong right now, so that favors Biden. Also, democrats are far superior at running campaigns than the republicans. They will outraise and outspend the republicans by a multiple.

Politics don’t really matter when one side is just so much better at winning elections than the other side.

The "strong" economy has been purchased with massive debt that has led to brutal price increases in consumer goods. Biden will likely win re-election because he's an incumbent, but the strong economy is a mirage.

 

You’re over exaggerating what’s going on with the economy probably because you get your views from the David Sacks podcast instead of anyone with pedigree.

 
Most Helpful

Republicans would have been more competitive in the general with Desantis. Trump just has too much drama around him that I could see this playing out similarly to 2012 where Obama was disliked but Romney couldn't seal the deal, IMO because there is a big "I hate both sides" bloc. Not everyone is hard right or hard left.

The thing is, Republicans should have completely swept both houses in 2022 after Afghanistan, COVID policies, backlash to rising crime after defund the police, inflation, etc., but they can't get a campaign message together to save their life. It's just 24/7 Trump drama and increasingly weird spam fundraising text messages. Biden is disliked but Republicans, or maybe I really should just say Trump since it's really just the Trump Show right now, can't seem to give people a positive reason to get on board with them.

 
JulianRobertson

Republicans would have been more competitive in the general with Desantis. Trump just has too much drama around him that I could see this playing out similarly to 2012 where Obama was disliked but Romney couldn't seal the deal, IMO because there is a big "I hate both sides" bloc. Not everyone is hard right or hard left.

The thing is, Republicans should have completely swept both houses in 2022 after Afghanistan, COVID policies, backlash to rising crime after defund the police, inflation, etc., but they can't get a campaign message together to save their life. It's just 24/7 Trump drama and increasingly weird spam fundraising text messages. Biden is disliked but Republicans, or maybe I really should just say Trump since it's really just the Trump Show right now, can't seem to give people a positive reason to get on board with them.

I'm a "Small L" liberterian, and I think that I'm going to hold my nose and vote Biden.   When Americans for Prosperity come out and say "we really wouldn't want you"  that's saying something.  I'm modestly pro Nikki Haley, and I think Chris Christie massively fell on his sword, and is now up there with Christine Whitman for saying "I'm a conservative, and damn me for it, but don't damn me for being a party hack."

The only difference between Asset Management and Investment Research is assets. I generally see somebody I know on TV on Bloomberg/CNBC etc. once or twice a week. This sounds cool, until I remind myself that I see somebody I know on ESPN five days a week.
 

agree with your general message although DeSantis would not be stronger. Just going on about single wedge issues on Fox News (admittedly never seen him do interviews on other news stations but happy to be proved wrong) and being an awful communicator would not win a campaign. Whatever you think about Trump, his message of delivery is so effective, even with the psychodrama. He can still confidently debate and go to the stations he calls fake news and come out with an effective, clear message that DeSantis just cannot.

 

I mean...can he effectively debate though? I think where Trump really shot himself in the foot in 2020 was that first debate with Biden. He just came off as unhinged and not presidential. He *can* be an extraordinarily effective communicator when he doesn't say completely absurd stuff--and that last point really is the key. I think a lot of support for Trump in 2016 was a backlash of the woke culture of late Obama years, rather than genuine support for Trump, and now, the shock value factor just doesn't hit as much. If anything I think independents find it grating now.

 

View from across the pond, with our election coming up soon (TBC)

- Firstly, politicos said that Biden's poll numbers would improve with more welcoming economic data. Well inflation is still high, CPI figures actually increased in the FT today - further, Trump is using the 'you were better off with me 4 years ago' quite effectively, even when comparatively, the US economy is booming against the UK, Europe, China etc. 

- Trump is polling higher in all but one of the swing states, which is all he really needs to win - Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Penn etc - Nevada casinos behind Trump, anti-Green auto rhetoric in Michigan and significant Arab Americans not backing Biden over Gaza

- BUT, the only two things I would say are in Biden's favour are: 

- Anti-Trump Republicans. Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's former White House Director of Comms has repeatedly said significant anti-Trump Republicans could prevent his return, but whether they stay home or actually vote for Biden is a different question

- Trump himself: 2022 Midterm endorsements went awfully, yet Trump is never challenged on that at all - the lawsuits actually give him more popularity, and he's still bringing in large donations inspire of c.$500m of law payouts and fees. Lastly, the abortion policy really prevented a Red Wave in 2022. That could be the Democrats last hope

Either way, whoever wins will inherit the most divided America in history (said this in 2016 and 2020). If Trump wins, I highly doubt he will win the popular vote, but like he himself says, he just needs to win the six key swing states and he's back in. For Biden, the main issue is getting voters out on poll day. Facing criticism from younger, left-wing voters on Gaza. Imo more likely that anti-Trump Republicans don't vote at all

 

Eh, I'm going to push back on most divided. We've been in this state basically non-stop since ~2006-ish. I've seen the division really ramp up with the Iraq War and just never really stop and de-escalate. People forgot how divisive the end of Bush Jr and all of Obama was.

I think the long term solution really is go back to how the federal government was ran for most of US history, meaning push power back down to the states. Federal government should get back to stuff like national defense and foreign relations, and if the states want to have different policies for things like education, crime, other hot button issues like gun rights or abortion, etc., let them. More people get what they want that way.

I don't see people on the right who are unhappy with Trump (e.g. for how he handled COVID, bunch are mad at him for giving Fauci an award and not firing him) voting for Biden, but I can see a non-insignificant number voting RFK as a protest vote.

 

imo it's not whether he's a loser or not, but he raises two complete factual points.

1 Scaramucci points out a significant number of GOP voters will not vote Trump, c.20% (tweeted and said it on a podcast, happy to be corrected on the numbers)

2. Fundraising. Like other comments, the election is in most cases won by the outspender. The Dems are much better at running campaigns and have a wider network of donors. Trump did pull in 50m the other day, but Biden still has a significant lead of 50-100m more than Trump in the campaign bank - FT reported this. Only thing in Trump's favour is the capital gain of his media stock IPO and the fact his donors have much deeper pockets, but a smaller network. Plus, the 3-5bn gain in his net worth isn't going to be easily liquidated.

 

I loathe Joe Biden and everything about his presidency (I also don't really like Trump--I was a DeSantis supporter). That said, it's very, very difficult to dislodge an incumbent. I'd say the odds of him winning re-election are 2/1 in his favor (not lottery odds for Trump, but definitely not in his favor). Trump lost re-election almost entirely due to Covid and the changing of the election laws that increased voter turnout by something like 20 million votes in 4 years. George HW Bush lost re-election in 1992 entirely due to Ross Perot taking 19% of the vote, largely from right-leaning independents (like my father). You have to go back to Jimmy Carter in 1980 to find an incumbent losing re-election without a Black Swan political event. I don't see any Black Swan event, so odds are heavily in Biden's favor. 

Come to think of it, I think Jimmy Carter might be the only incumbent since the 19th century to lose without a Black Swan political event. You've got the Vietnam War with Johnson in 1968 (Johnson dropped out of the race because his loss was a foregone conclusion); the beginning of the Great Depression under Hoover in 1929 costing him the 1932 election; and you've got Taft's re-election ruined by Teddy Roosevelt running as a third-party candidate in 1912. So, without that special event (and RFK jr seems to be taking maybe 55-45 from Dems, so not really Perot level), it's tough to see Biden losing.

 

Carter's Black Swan was Iran. On top of that, he also had a third party contender to deal with that drew nearly 7% of the vote. Enough to cost him several states.

 
ballsdeep singh

Carter's Black Swan was Iran. On top of that, he also had a third party contender to deal with that drew nearly 7% of the vote. Enough to cost him several states.

Yeah, if Carter won every state that Reagan got less than 50% in, Carter would have gotten 275 electoral votes (269 majority), so the third-party candidacy was a small Black Swan political event. I say small because Reagan very likely still wins without the third party candidate. Without having lived through it, it's difficult for me to say if the Iran hostage crisis was a Black Swan event (something I'd call an unforeseeable major event or an event, that if foreseeable, is not the result of public policy decisions by the administration, e.g., Covid-19) or if it was merely the foreseeable result of bad foreign policy. Jimmy Carter's foreign policy was an abomination, so if his weakness contributed to the crisis then it's not really a Black Swan event.

 

There is still 7 months until the election. With the current geopolitical environment, I wouldn't already count out potential black swan events.

 

Everyone makes good points, probably is WSO is probably at least a some-what (most likely more than that) voting knowledge base. Probably have to go to WalMart (no offense) in a swing state to get an accurate representation of people's voting decisions and voting knowledge. For example, everyone debates abortion (the first issue mentioned as a response), when really its a not issue if you look at the stats, mainly (close to 90%) of abortions by women in their 20s/30s who should know better, and a good percentage of women in their 40s round it out. Point is, people should probably be more focused on other issues, but they aren't. Hate to say it/admit it, but most people vote based on if they "like" the person or perceive them as "presidential". 

Tin-foil hat, Trump will win, there are a lot of people who stand to make a lot of money if he wins, on both sides. It's basically Howard Stern (people who like him listen, people who hate him also listen). 

 
ironman32

Everyone makes good points, probably is WSO is probably at least a some-what (most likely more than that) voting knowledge base.

WSO is notoriously bad at political process talks. People are unable to separate their personal politics from the boots on the ground reality.

Posters here were convinced Trump wouldn’t win the 2016 Republican primary or the 2016 general election, and were adamant Trump would win in 2020 even though all data pointed otherwise. 

It’s far too early to predict 2024, but the smart money is betting against the WSO consensus. 

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 
CRE
ironman32

Everyone makes good points, probably is WSO is probably at least a some-what (most likely more than that) voting knowledge base.

People are unable to separate their personal politics from the boots on the ground reality.

Posters here were convinced Trump wouldn’t win the 2016 Republican primary or the 2016 general election

Kind of feel those two quotes relate to everyone in the US, not just WSO

If people could really separate personal politics from realty we'd probably have things like less people needing food assistance, better schools overall, be better as a financially as nation among other things. 

 

Sadly I feel like Biden might win and it’ll be a 2012 repeat

though if more issues pop up in the fall globally / inflation / economic that would be a big boon to Trump

republicans screwed up on Roe v Wade and need to change their messaging from national ban to states rights now as damage control 

 

Also one, albeit, smaller factor is potential escalation in the Middle East. I have a feeling that after Israel eliminated a top IRGC (Iran Quds/Military) leader in Damascus, escalation is immanent - the Iranians said they will respond back, either through Hezbollah or a direct strike to Israel. Further, a longer war in Gaza, amidst waning support at home for Israel could be costly for Biden, and voters (despite Trump being much more unconditionally pro-Israel) may penalise Biden for that. Escalation in the Middle East will give voters reminders of the Afghanistan 2021 withdrawal. Lastly, the Ukraine-Russia war is going to be and is on track to be a long slog of trench warfare - people on all sides in US politics, not just MAGA-Republicans are getting more skeptical of aid - can't remember an election so susceptible to foreign affairs and their implications for the President

 

It's a lot worse than just the economy.  There's backsliding in every walk of life.  Deficits spiraling out of control, zero handle whatsoever on immigration, incompetent foreign policy (yeah let's have Ukraine join NATO, great idea guys), dudes playing girls sports, downtowns crumbling across the country due to crime, cancel culture and the war on free speech, companies putting DEI ahead of their customers and shareholders . . . the list is endless.  To me it's not so much Biden specifically, it's that the modern Left has become the party of hopeless incompetent losers who want to hold back everyone else and are willing to tear down everything that's made this country the best in the world for 200 years.

Fortunately, I suspect enough Americans can see this problem that Trump will win.  But I'm not very confident, because these widespread problems should've led to a GOP sweeps in the '22 midterms and in the handful of '23 elections that happened, and it didn't play out that way.  So I'm pretty nervous for our future that we might get four more years of these fools turning our country inside out. 

The abortion thing definitely increases the risk.  Best thing ever would be a resolution to that so Dems stop raising money off it.  They'll never fix the problem because its their golden goose.  Obama had a majority in both houses and could've codified Roe v Wade, but he knew not to kill the goose.

 

It's because hardcore Democrats in the US believe in the fate of the Democratic party more than the future and well being of America.

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee
 

It's a hilarious brand of holier than thou while saying 'you're too dumb to understand so listen to me'

The Latinx thing cracks me up, less than 2% of hispanics identify with it and the libs continue to push it 

 
Isaiah_53_5 💎🙌💎🙌💎

It's because hardcore Democrats in the US believe in the fate of the Democratic party more than the future and well being of America.

Isaiah, what does that even mean? 

Hardcore members of both parties believe that the success of their vision of America is essential to the future of America. The person you’re responding to literally said “we are backsliding in every walk of life.” 

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Dr. Rahma Dikhinmahas

It's a lot worse than just the economy.  There's backsliding in every walk of life.  Deficits spiraling out of control, zero handle whatsoever on immigration, incompetent foreign policy (yeah let's have Ukraine join NATO, great idea guys), dudes playing girls sports, downtowns crumbling across the country due to crime, cancel culture and the war on free speech, companies putting DEI ahead of their customers and shareholders . . . the list is endless.  To me it's not so much Biden specifically, it's that the modern Left has become the party of hopeless incompetent losers who want to hold back everyone else and are willing to tear down everything that's made this country the best in the world for 200 years.

Fortunately, I suspect enough Americans can see this problem that Trump will win.  But I'm not very confident, because these widespread problems should've led to a GOP sweeps in the '22 midterms and in the handful of '23 elections that happened, and it didn't play out that way.  So I'm pretty nervous for our future that we might get four more years of these fools turning our country inside out. 

The abortion thing definitely increases the risk.  Best thing ever would be a resolution to that so Dems stop raising money off it.  They'll never fix the problem because its their golden goose.  Obama had a majority in both houses and could've codified Roe v Wade, but he knew not to kill the goose.

LMAO 

In order: 

  1. Saying “we are backsliding in every aspect of life” is proof-less fear mongering. You can’t define it. You can’t prove it. This is just doomposting. 
  2. Trump added over 3x what Biden did to the deficit. Why would anyone who is concerned about the deficit vote for Trump specifically? 
  3. Democrats AND Senate Republicans reached an agreement to help solve immigration. Trump shit on it and made it not pass because it is better for him politically to run on immigration being a problem. Pretty gross but not unsurprising that he puts himself over the country. 
  4. Ukraine has every right to join NATO. 
  5. “Dudes playing girl sports” isn’t something that actually happens with any statistical relevancy or impacts anyone’s life in any way. It’s just culture war bullshit. 
  6. I’ve lived in, worked in, and visited multiple downtowns over the past 4 years. They are absolutely not crumbling. Again, culture war bullshit. 
  7. “Cancel culture” isn’t real. The list of people who have actually been “cancelled” can be counted on one hand. Freedom of speech isn’t under attack unless you count Republican politicians literally banning books. Otherwise, you can say whatever you want without the government punishing you. 
  8. If you feel companies are “putting DEI ahead of their customers and shareholders,” don’t buy their products or their stocks. Easy fix. 

As usual, Doctor, you are posting as if the most terminally online absurdist blue hair leftists are in any way representative of the American left or Democratic voters in any way. Again, let me remind you that they are not. 

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

1. I say we're backsliding. That's my opinion. Obviously you disagree. That's your opinion. It's not a matter of "proof."  I gave examples and my opinions are pretty mainstream.  I'm not Alex Jones out here. 

2. I didn't say a word about Trump. And the only word I said about Biden was defending him, saying that is really about the broader Left and their destructive belief system. It would be a huge mistake to make this about one man.  This is why you don't see me criticizing Biden's senility. He's not the issue.

3. Nobody interested in the New York Times talking points on this.  One party thought sanctuary cities and open borders were smart.  One party didn't.  The end.

4. So you have no idea how NATO works.  Which is fine, but maybe don't speak if you don't know.

5. Agree that dudes playing girls sports is a tiny problem. But it was just one of many examples I listed.  And normalizing the ridiculous notion that boys can become girls isn't a small problem.

6. LOL nice gaslighting.

7. Ditto

8. Cool so we can just choose to not fly Boeing?

 
 

Cancel culture” isn’t real. The list of people who have actually been “cancelled” can be counted on one hand. Freedom of speech isn’t under attack unless you count Republican politicians literally banning books. Otherwise, you can say whatever you want without the government punishing you.

Nobody, including yourself, actually believes this. Especially your point on how Biden is good for border security lol.

 
Dr. Rahma Dikhinmahas

It's a lot worse than just the economy.  There's backsliding in every walk of life.  Deficits spiraling out of control, zero handle whatsoever on immigration, incompetent foreign policy (yeah let's have Ukraine join NATO, great idea guys), dudes playing girls sports, downtowns crumbling across the country due to crime, cancel culture and the war on free speech, companies putting DEI ahead of their customers and shareholders . . . the list is endless.  To me it's not so much Biden specifically, it's that the modern Left has become the party of hopeless incompetent losers who want to hold back everyone else and are willing to tear down everything that's made this country the best in the world for 200 years.

Fortunately, I suspect enough Americans can see this problem that Trump will win.  But I'm not very confident, because these widespread problems should've led to a GOP sweeps in the '22 midterms and in the handful of '23 elections that happened, and it didn't play out that way.  So I'm pretty nervous for our future that we might get four more years of these fools turning our country inside out. 

The abortion thing definitely increases the risk.  Best thing ever would be a resolution to that so Dems stop raising money off it.  They'll never fix the problem because its their golden goose.  Obama had a majority in both houses and could've codified Roe v Wade, but he knew not to kill the goose.

Agreed on all points but Trump has poisoned the political well since 2015. The GOP is destined for second place until Trump is gone. Should have nominated almost anyone else. 

 

Yep.  Two major achilles heels for GOP are Trump and abortion.  Biden is the most beatable candidate in the history of candidates, but GOP might pull off the impossible and lose to him.

 

The economy is not in the tank, as GDP has been 3-4% for the past two quarters.  The unemployment rate is low and stock market has been going up. All of these things are good for Biden.  Trump left office in a pandemic and as a result, the economic numbers while he was in office, were terrible.  Trump was terrible for this country for various reasons including giving a voice to ignorant people with biased views which led to a substantial increase in hate crimes and biased incidents. Trump can take credit for appointing 3 conservative judges which led to the over turning of Roe V. Wade.  He can also take credit for lowering taxes.  

 

When it comes to the economy, reality and perception are two different things. I just read a news article two days ago where people have more money in their bank accounts than ever before but those same people say the economy is bad.

The thing is stocks going up and home equity going up are good but it's not something that the average person checks daily. What the average person does check daily is the price of gas, milk, bread, eggs, etc. Sure someone's 401k is up 25% but mentally they feel stressed because a gallon of milk increased 30% in cost or eggs went up 20%. These costs are seen every day or week. So overall the average American may be financially better but people tend to focus more on negative impacts to daily life rather than them retiring with $75K more in 15 years.

Array
 

I think you’re oversimplifying a lot of what’s been going on and ignoring the broader picture. 

Everything I’ve read over the past couple of years has shown that household savings which were at all time highs during COVID have come crashing back down and recent FED data has shown that Personal Credit Card debt is at all time highs. 

I’ve noticed more since Trump took office that the new gauge for whether or not the economy is doing well is the price of the S&P 500. If it’s going up people and politicians boast that the economy is doing well while ignoring a lot of the other factors at play in the background like 1% of companies in the index accounting for 50% of it’s growth. 

This line of thinking also ignores the reality that the Top 10% of households own 67% of the wealth in this country. Bezos and Elon alone are worth more than the bottom 40% of Americans. Under the current system that share of the wealth is only going to continue to skyrocket as asset growth will continue to outperform wage growth at a parabolic rate. So when you mention someone having an extra $75K in 15 years I think you’re ignoring the fact that the Top 10% of households in that scenario are likely to have benefitted orders of magnitude more from the growth of those assets than your average worker in absolute terms. As someone in their 20’s the harsh reality is that the vast majority of people my age will never be able to afford a house unless they’re willing to move to T4 cities (exurbs with 2+ hour commute times are starting to trend outside T1 cities because suburbs are now too pricey). 

On the employment front technological advancements like AI, companies having to refi at substantially higher interest rates, and slower than expected growth in deal activity in fields like IB and consulting are leading to a large amount of layoffs. While, many of these companies did over hire during the pandemic and the layoffs were in many cases were a corrective action I think it ignores the fact that companies have now begun to realize they can cut 10-25% of their workforce while continuing to grow. In the near term I think that companies are going to continue to lay people off and replace them with AI productivity tools to drive up their stock prices until they’ve hit a point where they’ve over corrected. The net effects of this have and will continue to be one of the largest drivers of shareholder value for companies this past year, which doesn’t really help out the average person and disproportionately benefits the top 10% of households. 

I think what everyone is missing in the employment data is that service industry jobs (waiters/bartenders), part time and gig work (don’t have benefits), and government jobs are the only places that are currently hiring and where laid off people are going. As someone with a degree from a target school in economics and 5 YOE (IB + AM) I can’t even get hired into an entry level FP&A role after being laid off from a large asset manager last year. I’ve sent 1,000+ applications (2 interviews both of which ended up not hiring anyone), moved cities and am contemplating moving a third time (back in with my parents), and am currently working 3 jobs with no benefits which barely covers my expenses (driving for Uber, bartending at nights, and doing gig work for an AI company). I know dozens of young people like this including several other people from my target school who have been looking for jobs for over a year now and haven’t found anything. 

What I think is happening is that the bottom quartile of people have seen a dramatic increase in their quality of life (McDonalds now pays $20/hour) at the expense of the middle class who is seeing their job prospects outside of the trades dwindle while top quartile of households are getting dramatically wealthier. Once the election is over these CEO’s and politicians will start to acknowledge at some point in 2025 what the people on the ground already know to be true which is that anyone who has been laid off in the past year are struggling to get by doing gig work with little or no benefits and that companies are replacing people with AI and as a result have hiring freezes in place. 

 

View from across the pond as well.

Although many of our politicians are completely inept as well, I am baffled that the battle for the Oval Office is coming down to these two. I know there’s, quite literally, a lot of politics involved, but from the outside, wouldn’t the average American prefer someone like Dean Phillips (D) or Doug Burgum (R) who are mentally capable of having a full conversation and are not super controversial (at least to my limited knowledge)? I guess there’s a larger systemic debate to be had, but this election should definitely spark that discussion. Honestly, if I were registered to vote in the US, I would probably leave my ballot blank because both of these candidates are awful compared to many of the runners-up who were dropped in the primaries.

I don't know... Yeah. Almost definitely yes.
 

I think the problem is technology and polarization has effectively eroded the concept of the average American. I was a big Dean Phillips fan and thought he’d do much better but think even those candidates have a lot of flaws.

Chief among those flaws is that since it’s expensive to get on ballots many guys like Phillips, Yang, etc. end up having to take money from the same people funding the Trumps and Bidens of the world. I think these guys are mostly looked at as market research expenses to try and shape the ideologies for republicans and democrats in future cycles rather than legitimate challengers. 

My best guess at what an average American is today very contradictory since both sides of the isle cater to the extremes.

Average Persons Beliefs on Wedge Issues:

Abortion: Pro-Choice 

Immigration: Anti Open Borders (different from anti immigrant) 

Gay Rights: Pro Gay Marriage but oppose trans women in women’s sports 

Crime: Pro-Police 

Economy: Lifestyle of the Middle Class (skyrocketing costs and AI leading to layoffs/elimination of jobs) 

Vaccine: Cautious

Biden: I don’t think he has dementia but it’s impossible to ignore he’s lost several steps mentally. All of his public appearances involve answering pre planned questions and they refuse to put him in uncontrolled situations. 

Media: Claim democracy is on the line and Trump is an Autocrat but want to remove peoples ability to vote for him 

That leaves most of the country in a precious position and forced to choose between the lessor of two evils. I think religious beliefs drive a lot of the votes to the right along with the hypocrisy surrounding the narrative around Biden and Trump (refusing to acknowledge the cognitive decline of Biden and democracy is on the line so we’re going to take this guy off the ballot). 

I think the average American believes the following: 

Pro Choice, Anti Open Border (not anti immigrant), support gay rights but question trans women in women’s sports, support the enforcement of the law, pro vaccine (some skepticism), seeing their buying power erode (both assets and goods), see Biden is in decline, and the blatant hypocrisy from both sides that’s spewed from the media. 

Given these beliefs you’re either told you’re a Godless Woke Murderer if you vote left or a Racist Trans and Xenophobic Conspiracy Theorist if you vote right. 

 

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Commercial Real Estate Developer

Career Advancement Opportunities

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Lazard Freres No 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 18 98.3%
  • Harris Williams & Co. New 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 04 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

May 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (21) $373
  • Associates (91) $259
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (68) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (205) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (146) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

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