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Because you know nothing for a long time. You think you know something, but you really don't. I used to think the same thing you do around 1-2yr mark, and then after I crossed 5yr mark I realized I completely miscalibrated risk (made money in a lot of stuff in hindsight I didn't deserve to and lost money in a lot of stuff which was a consequence of knowing nothing but overestimating myself). Risk is the key nuance which takes a long time to really understand, you have to live thru it as I can explain till the sun goes down but you won't understand until you've been in the driver's seat

LO has a long time for investment cases to play out, often 5yrs or so....so you get fewer reps vs. L/S where you're seeing 30-50 theses play out a year. In LO you might only see a handful really play out per year. Fewer reps = more years 

 

lol this attitude above is part of the problem. LO investors seem to act like they are doing God's work or something and its insanely difficult to pick stocks to be in a portfolio that statistically underperform the index over the LT. Give me a break lol. I can almost guarantee... you're not that good. Also, at what point does diminishing marginal returns come into play for "experience"? All I'm saying is that I've seen enough mediocre pitches get money put behind them just because the person has 12-15 years of experience vs someone with 3-4 years with a solid thoughtful pitch gets ignored. IMO this is part of the problem/cause of perpetual underperformance in the LO industry. Supposed to be meritocratic environment but operates much more like a union where tenure is all that matters.  

 

Primarily because greener analysts are terrible at assessing risk and downside cases. Most younger analysts who materially outperform do so because they cover a hot industry/sector which shields this weakness.

 

I'm sorry you're feeling frustrated. I do listen to the pitches from juniors. Sometimes you're right, the juniors see things we didn't see, or think in new ways. That's why I think it makes a big difference to have good juniors. On the other hand, good juniors can understand that they don't know what they don't know. Maybe a newbie might have 9/10 bad ideas, but I still got one good idea. Over time the rate of good ideas gets better if they're any good. Usually they don't complain, because they're happy to have that safety net of someone checking their ideas and giving feedback.

But the fact is, just experience, tenure as you call it, is not necessarily enough. I've seen bozos actually make it into a seat running money, and usually it doesn't end well. I'll give you a bit of advice here. Experienced managers who are good, understand that there is a lot they don't know. They are not surgeons. Surgeons practice doing the same procedures over and over again until they have seen almost everything that can happen. In the markets, every cycle is a new adventure, where things don't work the way they did last time. "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." And sometimes it doesn't rhyme at all, and if you're not prepared for that you're done. Other investors putting on trades they don't correctly understand actually informs our investment process, and it happens all the time.

So all that said, if you want to be awesome at your job, start thinking about what you don't know, and what you can't know. If you can't master a certain level of humility about that, you'll never make it. Good luck, and please post back in 5 years and let us know how it worked out.

 

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